● Lex Special Edition · Nov 4 Democrats win both chambers, and bank regulators get new overseers The Associated Press called the Senate for Democrats late Tuesday and the House early Wednesday. Little new banking law is likely to pass. President Trump keeps his veto, and he has promised to use it against the Democratic agenda, the AP reported. The bigger change is oversight. From January, Democrats chair House Financial Services and Senate Banking, the two committees that oversee the financial regulators. American Banker wrote in September that control would give them a chance to revisit the deregulatory push of Trump's second term. What was called, and what wasn't Most of the Senate races bankers watched went to Democrats. Sherrod Brown beat Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio on an AP race call. Troy Jackson unseated Sen. Susan Collins in Maine; Maine Public reported that Collins conceded before the AP called it. Collins was one of the Republicans who voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September. Roy Cooper beat Michael Whatley in North Carolina. The exception was Nebraska, where Sen. Pete Ricketts, a Senate Banking member who has backed crypto-friendly legislation, held off independent Dan Osborn. The AP called it at 3:27 a.m. ET. Two results are still out. One is the size of the House majority, which waits on races still being counted. The other is Arkansas's 2nd District, where Financial Services Chair French Hill led Democrat Chris Jones by 4,402 votes with an estimated 99% counted, according to AP results cited by Talk Business & Politics at 11:46 p.m. Tuesday. We found no AP call as of 5:50 a.m. Win or lose, Hill's gavel changes parties in January. The gavels are not settled As our Nov 2 brief noted, American Banker reported in September that Rep. Maxine Waters, long the committee's top Democrat, would most likely chair Financial Services. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Banking ranking member, would likely chair that panel. Neither outcome is certain. Reuters, citing Punchbowl News, reported that Rep. Sean Casten had weighed challenging Waters for the chair. Casten, who has pushed to probe the administration's crypto ties, won reelection Tuesday on an AP call reported by Shaw Local. In the Senate, Reuters noted that Brown, who served 18 years before losing in 2024, could have a shot at leading Banking again if Democrats grant him seniority for that service. The party caucuses will decide. What a chair can do Chairs control hearings, issue subpoenas and compel testimony. American Banker's reporting sketched where they would likely point: capital requirements, merger approvals and supervision as hearing subjects, with large bank mergers drawing particular scrutiny. The other target is crypto tied to the president, including the OCC's national trust charter for World Liberty Financial. "It's tailor-made for oversight," Justin Schardin of CFRA Washington Analysis told the publication. Ramp filed for an OCC trust charter in October, joining Zaria Systems' pending application. The ICBA's Oct. 2 suit over the OCC's charter run is still pending, as our Oct 21 brief covered. We think a Democratic committee will read every file in that queue against the World Liberty approval. It will likely do the same with any large merger approved between now and January. The Senate also confirms executive nominees, financial regulators included, American Banker noted. After January, a nominee to a bank regulator needs Democratic votes. Crypto and cards For fintechs, the CLARITY Act was already in trouble. Its cloture vote failed September 15. DLA Piper notes that bills not enacted in the 119th Congress generally must be reintroduced in the 120th. Crypto groups spent more than $50 million trying to defeat Brown, Reuters reported. He is now a contender to run the committee that would mark up the next version. Credit card rates are the likelier place for movement. Candidates of both parties campaigned on capping them, Bloomberg reported, citing a May Harvard CAPS/Harris poll in which 72% backed a one-year 10% cap. The same report said the White House has backed away from the idea. In September, Capco's Peter Dugas told American Banker that card rates were one area where the president might agree with a Democratic bill. Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, whom Reuters called a leading proponent of capping swipe fees, lost his seat to Adam Hamilton. What to watch Nothing changes in the committees before January. Republicans keep both gavels through the lame duck, with Hill still chairing Financial Services. Agency rulemakings continue on their own schedules. FinCEN's A7 Network comment window closes today, as our Nov 3 brief noted. The near-term signals are the Arkansas 2nd call, the caucus votes on committee leadership, and whether Brown pursues Banking or Agriculture, the two committees Reuters flagged. Bottom line For banks, 2027 is more likely to bring hearings, document requests and nominee fights than new statutes. The 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. By Lex | 